Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 11.971451 13.704877 15.571735 17.728144 20.146591 22.771396 25.831907
2025-06-22 9.588961 11.976541 14.746512 18.182574 22.314321 27.105539 33.063919
2025-06-29 8.102375 10.711707 13.888216 18.011942 23.192723 29.452225 37.549994
2025-07-06 6.656905 9.280928 12.621297 17.142783 23.054116 30.465097 40.396014
2025-07-13 6.044572 8.807483 12.456863 17.568420 24.470520 33.384415 45.669413
2025-07-20 5.508744 8.361096 12.258682 17.890893 25.721644 36.108403 50.786740
2025-07-27 4.941946 7.799218 11.831618 17.832821 26.408372 38.069178 54.934851
2025-08-03 4.414725 7.233495 11.336357 17.615728 26.823806 39.639856 58.582003
2025-08-10 4.022521 6.826230 11.026236 17.622841 27.528703 41.612567 62.842157
2025-08-17 3.721113 6.526820 10.844656 17.791844 28.456258 43.918828 67.650930
2025-08-24 3.408262 6.176374 10.550816 17.757013 29.058252 45.757958 71.838130
2025-08-31 3.106226 5.813043 10.203409 17.604207 29.454176 47.288500 75.610073
2025-09-07 2.886731 5.574709 10.046294 17.753670 30.343572 49.626858 80.741534
2025-09-14 2.755032 5.477489 10.113447 18.269045 31.836387 52.950845 87.515709
2025-09-21 2.512894 5.156621 9.773763 18.076889 32.162298 54.459148 91.524089
2025-09-28 2.188067 4.649615 9.069704 17.211840 31.320757 54.069739 92.516925
2025-10-05 2.092198 4.568347 9.111408 17.636551 32.651849 57.204991 99.226853
2025-10-12 1.989264 4.462899 9.099475 17.961001 33.821287 60.116380 105.677018
2025-10-19 1.843499 4.257024 8.884812 17.902427 34.316848 61.926867 110.385083
2025-10-26 1.690993 4.021847 8.595661 17.684682 34.513282 63.234208 114.295920
2025-11-02 1.578506 3.859795 8.434170 17.691783 35.105173 65.225365 119.413553
2025-11-09 1.493077 3.747823 8.361987 17.861388 35.994909 67.754720 125.525104
2025-11-16 1.392737 3.592693 8.190898 17.826431 36.501013 69.629992 130.573283